The App Store's Opportunity: Developer Financing
Apple took the narrowest, least generous approach to compliance after the Supreme Court's decision last Tuesday. Clearly they are going to do everything they can to hold onto that sweet, sweet App Store commission. I don't blame them considering the revenue it provides during a flat revenue period. Every single day Apple gets ~$247M in services revenue - mostly from the App Store.
Ultimately, after more litigation and regulation, I believe web links will be available in apps at a significantly lower commission than that 27%. Already they are offering 17% for side-loaded apps in the EU. Nonetheless, I doubt Apple's App Store business really gets threatened. In-app payments are a great experience for consumers and only larger businesses with durable customer relationships will sway consumers to change their behavior.
One thing Apple should do is give developers more reason to have payments go through in-app payments. A simple opportunity is financing.
For reference, Shopify has done $4.5B in capital loans to their merchants to help with cashflow and invest in their businesses. It’s a win-win: it is revenue generating for Shopify, keeps merchants on the platform, and helps merchants grow.
Apple should do the same thing by giving developers the opportunity to get revenue based financing. They should especially do it for developers in the Small Business Program. The developer can take a loan against their expected future revenue for that app. They could use this for cashflow needs, to improve their app, spend on marketing, or even build another app.
Other companies already offer this, but Apple is in a unique position. They have superior data to underwrite, a massive balance sheet, a privileged relationship with the developer, and can collect re-payment right off the top. It's a significant opportunity considering the App Store and Shopify are at similar scale. Shopify did $200B+ in 2023 GMV last year compared to Apple’s $171B on the App Store (per data.ai).
This would be a value-creating win-win for developers and Apple. Plus it would be a nice narrative during an austere venture environment.